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Market Trends 2024: A Story Told Through 10 Essential Charts and Economic Indicators

Here are the main points from the article:

Economy:

  • The US economy remains on solid footing despite some slowing.
  • The labor market is cooling but not rapidly, with a "low hire, low fire" situation.
  • The unemployment rate has been steady at around 4%.
  • Economists believe the economy may be headed for a "soft landing," where inflation falls to the Fed’s target without recession.

Fed:

  • The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in its final meeting of the year, signaling it will slow down the pace of cuts.
  • Officials see the fed funds rate falling to 3.9% in 2025, higher than previously projected.
  • The Fed expects to cut interest rates two more times in 2025 and two additional times in 2026.

Stock Market:

  • Strategists expect a solid-to-strong year for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a median target of 6,600 (11% increase from current levels).
  • Only one strategist sees the benchmark index ending 2025 lower.
  • Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey expects the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 7,007.

Inflation:

  • The Fed believes it can bring inflation down to its target of 2% without recession.
  • Economists are cautiously optimistic about the inflation outlook.

Interest Rates:

  • Markets are pricing in one or two additional rate cuts in 2025, lower than previously expected.
  • The Fed expects to slow down its easing cycle after launching it earlier this year.